Event Contracts
Event contracts turn a future outcome into a tradable position, with prices and payment rules that determine your potential gain or loss.
A prediction market can ask whether a central bank will cut rates or a team will win its next game. The event contract is what you buy when you take a side on that question. Its written terms define which result pays, and your purchase price affects how much of that payment you keep as profit.
For a hypothetical contract that pays $1 if your side is correct, paying 40¢ leaves 60¢ of potential profit before fees. Paying 90¢ for the same contract leaves 10¢, even though both purchases depend on the same result. On exchanges such as Polymarket, you can also sell your position to another buyer while the market is open, realizing a profit or loss at the sale price.
What is an event contract in trading?
An event contract is a financial contract that pays according to an event's result or a recorded measurement. In the common Yes/No design, you buy one side of a question. The side that matches the final result pays a fixed amount, usually $1 per contract, and the other pays $0.
A rate-cut contract asks whether the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at its next meeting. Contracts can also ask who wins a game or where Bitcoin's price will be at a particular time. Buying one gives you a claim on its payment, without ownership of the company or asset it concerns.
A Yes/No contract on a central bank's announcement pays according to whether the decision meets the condition written into the contract.
The names vary across venues. ForecastEx calls its Yes and No positions forecast contracts, while Polymarket uses shares or outcome tokens for positions on a market's possible results.
What are event contracts on Robinhood and Webull?
Event contracts on Robinhood and Webull let you buy Yes or No on questions about game results, economic announcements, and other events through your brokerage account. Your return depends on the price you pay and what the contract is worth when you sell it or it settles.
The broker handles your account and order routing, while the exchange lists the contract and writes the trading and settlement rules, as Webull's overview explains. The exchange applies those terms to decide the result.
Buying an event contract solely to earn an investment return is speculation on the result, which fits the everyday meaning of “betting.” The same instrument can also hedge an existing financial risk. For example, someone whose loan payments rise when the central bank raises rates could hold a contract that pays on a rate increase, offsetting some of the added borrowing cost.
How do event contracts work?
You buy a position at a market price and can sell it while trading is open and a buyer is available. If you keep the contract through settlement, its rules determine what you receive.
What do Yes and No mean on Kalshi and Polymarket?
For Kalshi contracts and Polymarket shares, Yes takes the side that the event will happen as the question describes, and No takes the side that it will not. One contract or share is one unit of that position.
Consider a hypothetical contract asking, “Will Bitcoin be above $120,000 at noon UTC on Friday?” Its two sides cover the following results:
| Position | Result that pays $1 | Result that pays $0 |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | Bitcoin's price is above $120,000. | The price is $120,000 or lower. |
| No | Bitcoin's price is $120,000 or lower. | The price is above $120,000. |
No on a team winning a tournament can succeed when any rival becomes champion, without identifying which rival wins. The written rules also say how cancellations and other exceptional results are treated.
How are prediction market contracts priced?
Prices form through trading. A buyer offers a price and a seller accepts it, or their orders wait until someone agrees. Polymarket documents this process through its order book, the list of available buy and sell orders.
For a contract that pays $1, 40¢ is commonly read as an implied probability of about 40%. At a 40% chance, the average payment would be 40¢, matching the purchase price. Trading costs, willingness to take risk, and limited trading activity can move a price away from the probability of the outcome.
The 100 squares represent Yes contracts on separate events, each priced at 40¢ with a hypothetical 40% chance of paying $1. If 40 pay and 60 pay nothing, you receive $40 in total, averaging 40¢ per contract and matching the purchase price.
How do prediction market payouts work?
The amount paid at settlement equals the number of contracts you hold multiplied by their final value. A holding of 100 contracts that settle at $1 returns $100, regardless of what you paid for them. Robinhood calls this amount the “payout”, from which you subtract your purchase cost and fees to calculate profit.
If those 100 contracts cost $40, the $100 payment includes the original $40 plus a $60 profit. These hypothetical calculations exclude fees, which reduce a profit or increase a loss.
| Purchase | Cost | Payment if that side wins | Profit if it wins | Loss if it settles at $0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 Yes at 40¢ | $40 | $100 | $60 | $40 |
| 100 No at 60¢ | $60 | $100 | $40 | $60 |
| 100 Yes at 90¢ | $90 | $100 | $10 | $90 |
A game can end while a Kalshi “payout” remains pending, because the exchange still needs the official result before it can settle and credit your cash balance.
How is profit calculated on prediction market contracts?
For a position held to settlement, multiply the number of contracts by their final value, then subtract the total purchase cost and fees. For a position sold early, use the sale proceeds instead of the amount received at settlement.
Percentage return divides the profit by the amount spent. A $60 profit on a $40 purchase is a 150% return. A $40 profit on a $60 purchase is about 66.7%. The returns differ because the positions cost different amounts, even though each receives $100 if its side wins.
In these hypothetical purchases, 100 Yes cost $40 and 100 No cost $60, with either holding paying $100 if its side wins. Subtracting each cost leaves a $60 profit and 150% return for Yes, compared with a $40 profit and about 66.7% for No, before fees.
If you bought in several batches, add their costs together. Buying 40 contracts at 35¢ costs $14, and another 60 at 45¢ costs $27. The total purchase cost is $41, so a $100 payment leaves $59 before fees.
What is the maximum loss on a prediction market position?
For a fully paid purchase, the maximum loss is the amount spent on the contracts plus fees. Kalshi's explanation of cash-backed event contracts describes funding the position upfront, with losses limited to the money committed.
Can you sell early on Kalshi and Polymarket?
You can sell Kalshi contracts early and Polymarket shares before resolution, provided trading is available and someone takes the other side. The completed trade fixes your profit or loss on the quantity sold.
Take 100 Yes contracts bought at 40¢ each. Selling all 100 at 65¢ brings in $65 against the $40 purchase cost, realizing a $25 profit before fees. The buyer takes over the settlement claim, so a later change in the result leaves your completed sale unaffected.
Selling the same 100 contracts at 25¢ instead brings in $25 and realizes a $15 loss. Holding them would leave you waiting for either $100 or $0 at settlement. An early sale is one way to “cash out” of a market position, with the amount set by the prices buyers accept.
For 100 hypothetical Yes contracts bought at 40¢, the dashed mark is the $40 purchase cost. Selling at 65¢ fixes a $25 profit and selling at 25¢ fixes a $15 loss, while holding to settlement leaves either a $60 profit if Yes wins or a $40 loss if it loses, before fees.
What price can you sell Polymarket shares for?
An immediate sale of Polymarket shares takes available buy orders, called bids. If the highest bid covers only part of your holding, selling the rest immediately means accepting lower prices. The drop in your average sale price is an example of slippage on Polymarket and Kalshi.
A limit order sets the minimum price you will accept and fills when a willing buyer meets it. Part or all of the holding can remain unsold if there are too few buyers at that price.
Can you sell part of a prediction market position?
Yes. A partial sale closes only the quantity sold, and the contracts you keep still depend on the final result.
Suppose you bought 100 Yes contracts at 40¢ each, then sold 40 at 65¢. The sale brings in $26 for contracts that cost $16, realizing a $10 profit before fees. You still hold 60 contracts with an original cost of $24.
| What happens to the remaining 60? | Money from the partial sale | Later settlement payment | Total received | Result against the original $40 cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| They settle at $1. | $26 | $60 | $86 | $46 profit |
| They settle at $0. | $26 | $0 | $26 | $14 loss |
How does holding an event contract at 95¢ compare with selling?
If you can sell a $1 binary contract for 95¢, holding pays more on average only when its chance of settling at $1 exceeds 95%, ignoring fees and the cost of waiting. At a 95% chance, the average payment would be 95¢, matching the sale price.
For 100 contracts, selling brings in $95. Holding instead leaves $5 more to gain if they pay $100 and $95 to lose if they pay nothing. One failed hold of this size erases the extra gain from 19 successful holds at the same price.
For 100 contracts you could sell at 95¢, holding to a $100 settlement brings in $5 more, while a $0 settlement leaves you $95 worse off. Nineteen such gains offset one loss, so holding matches selling on average at a 95% chance of success, before fees and the cost of waiting.
The original purchase price is already paid in either case, so it drops out of the hold-or-sell comparison. Fees change the amounts you keep, and waiting for settlement leaves the $95 committed until payment.
Is selling Yes the same as buying No?
Selling Yes and buying No are financially equivalent on a $1 binary contract when the Yes sale price and No purchase price add up to $1. From the same starting position, a 65¢ Yes sale matches a 35¢ No purchase. Kalshi describes buying and selling opposite sides as equivalent.
Suppose you bought Yes at 40¢. Ignoring fees, selling it at 65¢ locks in a 25¢ profit. Buying No at 35¢ instead brings your combined cost to 75¢ for a pair worth $1, also leaving 25¢. How the venue records the trade determines what remains in your account.
In this hypothetical trade, selling a Yes contract for 65¢ after buying it at 40¢ leaves a 25¢ profit. Buying No for 35¢ instead makes a pair that costs 75¢ and pays $1, leaving the same 25¢ before fees.
Kalshi nets opposite positions in the same market, so buying ten No against ten Yes closes the position. To move from ten Yes to ten No through flip selling, an order sells twenty Yes contracts. The first ten close the existing holding, and the remaining ten open the No position.
On Polymarket, Yes and No tokens can be held separately. Buying ten No against ten Yes leaves ten pairs, which can be merged for $10 of backing funds. Selling the ten Yes shares closes the holding directly.
ForecastEx closes forecast contracts through an opposite purchase. A holder buys No to close Yes, or Yes to close No, since ForecastEx does not offer sales of the held contract.
If you hold 10 Yes and buy 10 No in the same market, Kalshi and ForecastEx close your position. Polymarket keeps both sets of shares, leaving 10 Yes/No pairs you can merge for $10.
How do you read Kalshi market rules and Polymarket resolution rules?
A market's title summarizes the question, and the written rules decide how it settles. Those terms, which you can search across Polymarket and Kalshi, say what must happen for your side to receive a payment, which evidence counts, and how exceptions are handled. Kalshi market rules identify the outcome required and the source used to verify it.
A useful reading of the terms answers these questions:
| Part of the contract | Question it answers |
|---|---|
| Qualifying outcome | What must happen for Yes to receive the stated payment? |
| Measurement | Does the contract use a final value, an average, or something occurring at any point in a period? |
| Source | Which organization, publication, recording, or data series supplies the result? |
| Deadline | What date, time, and timezone define the relevant window? |
| Exceptions | How are cancellations, missing data, ties, or revisions treated? |
In a hypothetical contract asking whether inflation is above 3%, a reported value of exactly 3% fails the condition. In one asking for at least 3%, it satisfies it. A rule using the published, rounded figure can also give a different result from one using more decimal places.
Kalshi's documented Bitcoin price contract uses the average of the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index over the minute before the contract's observation time. That average can remain below a threshold even when a single exchange briefly trades above it. Under these terms, the index average decides the result, and missing data at expiration leads to No.
For a hypothetical contract requiring Bitcoin above $120,000, one exchange briefly crosses the threshold in the minute before observation. The contract settles on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index's average over that minute, and its $119,930 reading makes Yes pay $0.
If a product goes on sale late on Friday and the company announces it on Monday, a contract on availability by Friday can succeed while one on an announcement by Friday fails. Similarly, an initial economic release and a later revision can produce different measurements.
Under Kalshi's Fed-decision terms, cancellation of the meeting named in the contract makes “No change” resolve Yes and the other contracts No.
The end of trading, confirmation of the result, and payment can occur at different times. Kalshi explains that trading can continue while it awaits official confirmation, even after an event appears to have occurred.
How much does a Yes/No pair pay at settlement?
One Yes and one No on the same $1 binary condition have a combined settlement value of $1, because whichever side wins takes the dollar. Polymarket calls the two tokens a complete set.
The prices at which you buy the two sides can total more than their $1 value. Ignoring fees, buying Yes for 40¢ and No for 65¢ costs $1.05 and loses 5¢ when the pair returns $1. A pair bought for 95¢ would gain 5¢, provided both trades execute for the intended quantity and cover the same condition. The gap between available buying and selling prices explains why Yes and No purchase prices can add up to more than $1.
For two hypothetical Yes/No pairs on the same condition, the dashed line marks the $1 each pays whichever side wins. A $1.05 purchase loses 5¢ and a 95¢ purchase gains 5¢, before fees.
Different deadlines can break the relationship even when both contracts concern the same product launch. Imagine buying Yes on a launch before July 1 and No on a launch before August 1. A July 15 launch makes both holdings settle at zero because it falls after the first deadline and before the second.
A launch before July 1 pays the Yes holding, while the No holding pays only if no launch occurs before August 1. A hypothetical July 15 launch falls between those deadlines, leaving both holdings to settle at $0.
Matching the contracts involves comparing their measurement sources, definitions, and exception rules as well as their deadlines. A disagreement between two named data sources could leave apparently opposite contracts with different results.
What do split and merge mean on Polymarket?
On Polymarket, splitting creates a complete Yes/No pair from collateral, the funds backing the claims. Merging exchanges an equal number of Yes and No shares for that collateral.
For a $1 binary market, the operations have these effects:
| Operation | What goes in | What comes out |
|---|---|---|
| Split | $1 of collateral | One Yes share and one No share |
| Sell an existing share | One share | The agreed sale price; the buyer receives the share |
| Merge | One Yes share and one No share | $1 of collateral |
| Redeem after resolution | A resolved share | Its recorded settlement value |
A split can turn $100 of collateral into 100 Yes and 100 No shares. The 200 shares divide claims on $100, with one dollar backing each pair.
A new pair can also arise when complementary buy orders match. Polymarket's price-discovery example matches a 60¢ Yes buyer with a 40¢ No buyer. Their combined collateral creates a pair, and each buyer receives the side they purchased. When an existing share changes hands, it passes to the buyer without creating another pair.
With 80 Yes shares and 50 No shares, you can merge 50 pairs for $50 of collateral and retain 30 Yes shares. Those remaining shares still depend on the event's result. Redemption happens after resolution, when an individual share can be exchanged for its settlement value without the opposite share.
A hypothetical Polymarket holding of 80 Yes and 50 No shares contains 50 complete pairs, each exchangeable for $1 of backing funds. Merging them returns $50 and leaves 30 Yes shares whose payment still depends on the event's result.
How do prediction market contracts with multiple outcomes work?
A multiple-outcome event groups separate Yes/No contracts, such as one for each potential tournament champion. Polymarket calls the group an event and each individual question a market, a distinction you can see in the Polymarket and Kalshi market screener. More than one Yes can pay if the contracts allow several results to happen together.
Exactly one Yes pays when the group meets both of these conditions:
- Mutually exclusive outcomes cannot happen together.
- Exhaustive outcomes cover every possibility allowed by the rules.
A completed tournament with exactly one champion has mutually exclusive winner outcomes. A list containing every possible champion is exhaustive, so one Yes contract on every team pays $1 in total when the champion is decided. If you hold Yes on only three favorites and an unlisted team wins, all three contracts settle at zero.
In this hypothetical tournament with one champion, holding one Yes contract on each of the three favorites gives a 74% chance of receiving $1 in total. The other three teams have a combined 26% chance, and a win by any of them leaves all three holdings paying $0.
How do Bitcoin price ranges differ from overlapping thresholds?
Numerical markets can divide possible results into separate ranges or ask several overlapping questions. Consider hypothetical contracts using the same Bitcoin price measurement at the same time:
| Contract structure | Listed conditions | Which Yes contracts pay at $115,000? |
|---|---|---|
| Separate ranges | $100,000 or below; above $100,000 through $110,000; above $110,000 | Only the final range |
| Overlapping thresholds | Above $100,000; above $110,000; above $120,000 | The first two thresholds |
The ranges cover every possible price without overlap, so exactly one Yes pays $1. The threshold conditions allow several Yes contracts to pay at once, and their probabilities need not add up to 100%.
At a hypothetical Bitcoin measurement of $115,000, only the separate range above $110,000 pays $1. That price also clears the $100,000 and $110,000 thresholds, so two Yes contracts pay in the overlapping group while the $120,000 threshold contract pays $0.
Combining Yes above $100,000 with No above $120,000 pays $2 when the measured price is above $100,000 and at or below $120,000. Outside that interval, one side pays $1 and the other zero. At $115,000, both conditions succeed. For either result, subtracting what the pair cost from its settlement payment gives the paired trade's gain or loss before fees.
You can also subtract threshold probabilities to find the implied probability of a range. If the probability of exceeding $100,000 is 70% and the probability of exceeding $120,000 is 25%, the implied probability of finishing above $100,000 and at or below $120,000 is 45%. That subtraction assumes both figures refer to the same measurement and time.
What is Polymarket negative risk?
Negative risk, also written negRisk, links Polymarket positions in a group where exactly one outcome wins. It allows one No share to be converted into one Yes share on every other outcome.
Imagine a group with three possible winners: Team A, Team B, and Team C. The rules require exactly one champion. One No share on Team A pays the same amount as the combination of one Yes on Team B and one Yes on Team C:
| Champion | No on Team A | Yes on Team B plus Yes on Team C |
|---|---|---|
| Team A | $0 | $0 |
| Team B | $1 | $1 |
| Team C | $1 | $1 |
The two Yes shares come from converting the existing No share, and only one can pay because the tournament has one champion. Splitting $1 on Team A would instead create Yes and No on Team A.
Suppose you hold one No on Team A and one No on Team B. At least one pays $1 whichever team wins, and both pay if Team C wins. Polymarket's conversion mechanism can turn that holding into $1 of collateral plus one Yes on Team C. You recover the dollar common to every result before the champion is known, while keeping the claim on an additional dollar if Team C wins.
In a hypothetical Polymarket group with exactly one champion among Teams A, B, and C, one No on A plus one No on B pays $1 if A or B wins and $2 if C wins. Conversion returns $1 of collateral now and leaves one Yes on C, preserving the total received for each result.
Some groups can add named outcomes after trading begins. Polymarket calls this augmented negative risk. Its “Other” category changes as additional outcomes receive names, so a holder's remaining claim can cover fewer possibilities than it did when purchased.
What are sports event contracts?
Sports event contracts let you buy Yes or No on game winners, scoring margins, totals, and player performance. You pay a market price for a position that usually settles at $1 if your chosen side is correct and $0 if it is wrong.
| Contract type | Illustrative Yes condition | Result that satisfies it |
|---|---|---|
| Game winner | A named team wins. | It wins the game or period named in the rules. |
| Point spread, −10.5 | A team wins by more than 10.5 points. | It wins by 11 or more points. |
| Total, over 47.5 | Combined scoring exceeds 47.5 points. | The teams score at least 48 points between them. |
| Player statistic | A player's receiving yards exceed 85.5. | The recorded total is at least 86 yards. |
A team winning by ten points satisfies a game-winner contract while failing the −10.5 condition. With +10.5, the team's score plus 10.5 must exceed its opponent's score, so even a loss by ten points or fewer satisfies the condition. Half-point lines avoid an exact tie at the threshold when scores are whole numbers. For a total labeled under 47.5, combined scoring must be 47 points or fewer.
In these hypothetical contracts, a ten-point win meets the game-winner and +10.5 spread conditions, while a ten-point loss meets only +10.5. For the −10.5 spread, Yes needs a win by at least 11 points.
Some combo contracts combine several conditions, such as a team winning and total scoring exceeding a threshold. Under ordinary $1-or-$0 settlement, every component must succeed for the combined claim to pay $1.
Kalshi documents combo settlement as the product of the component settlement values. If three components settle at $1, $1, and 70¢, the combo pays 70¢. If any component settles at zero, their product is zero.
What happens if a football game ends in a tie on Kalshi?
Kalshi's documented football game-winner terms pay Yes and No holders 50¢ each on a tie when no Tie outcome is listed. When a Tie outcome is listed, it resolves Yes and the team-specific outcomes resolve No. Overtime counts unless the contract specifies otherwise.
A 50¢ settlement gives holders the same amount per contract even when their purchase prices differ. Someone who bought 100 contracts at 40¢ collects $50 and makes $10 before fees. Someone who bought 100 at 80¢ also collects $50 and loses $30. A refund would return each buyer's own purchase cost.
Under Kalshi's football game-winner terms, a tie with no listed Tie outcome pays 50¢ per contract, giving both hypothetical holders of 100 contracts $50. That payment leaves a $10 profit on the $40 purchase and a $30 loss on the $80 purchase, before fees.
Which result counts for a Kalshi football game-winner contract?
Kalshi's football game-winner terms use the official game result to decide which side pays. If a postponed game does not start within the allowed window, the contract settles at the last fair market price instead of waiting for the score.
Rain can delay a football game's start and leave its contracts waiting for a result. The postponement rules say how long the market waits for kickoff and how it settles if that time runs out.
What are mention markets?
Mention markets let you buy Yes or No on whether a word or phrase will be used during an event, such as an executive saying “Bitcoin” on an earnings call. In a $1 binary contract, Yes pays if the mention meets the rules and No pays if it does not.
An executive could discuss digital assets throughout a call without saying “Bitcoin.” That discussion would fail a contract requiring that word, even though the subject came up.
The rules for Kalshi mention markets accept plural and possessive nouns, so “regulations” qualifies for “regulation.” Changes to a different grammatical form, such as “regulate,” or a different tense, such as “launch” to “launched,” fail. A word separated by a space or hyphen counts, so “Bitcoin mining” and “Bitcoin-backed” qualify for “Bitcoin,” while “Bitcoiners” does not.
Under Kalshi's mention-market terms, “Bitcoin mining” and “Bitcoin-backed” count for “Bitcoin,” while “Bitcoiners” does not. Plural and possessive nouns such as “regulations” and “regulation's” count, but changing “regulation” to “regulate” or “launch” to “launched” does not.
The same terms allow the contract to specify which broadcast segments count, including prerecorded material and advertisements. The contract also names whose words count and the broadcast or time period it covers.
How do event contracts compare with options, futures, and stocks?
A binary event contract pays a fixed amount when its condition is met. Stock options and futures have gains or losses that vary with the underlying price, while a stock represents ownership of a company.
| Instrument | What the holder owns | How the result changes |
|---|---|---|
| $1 binary event contract | A claim that pays if the contract's condition is met | Crossing the contract's threshold changes the payment from $0 to $1. |
| Stock call option | The right to buy shares at an agreed exercise price | Its value at expiration increases as the stock rises above that price. |
| Conventional futures contract | A contract for future delivery or cash settlement under its terms | Gains and losses follow changes in the underlying contract price. |
| Stock | An ownership interest in a company | The share's market value changes, and ownership can continue beyond a particular event. |
Event contracts vs options at expiration
Consider a hypothetical $1 event contract on a stock closing above $100 and a call option giving you the right to buy that stock at $100. At a $101 close, the event contract pays $1 and exercising the call lets you buy a share worth $101 for $100. That $1 difference is the call's intrinsic value per share. At a $120 close, the event contract still pays $1 while the call's intrinsic value rises to $20 per share.
The hypothetical event contract pays a fixed $1 for a stock close above $100, whether the stock closes at $101 or $120. At expiration, a call with a $100 exercise price is worth $1 per share at $101 and $20 at $120, excluding the cost of either purchase.
Those figures exclude the purchase price. An equity option usually represents 100 shares, so its per-share value must also be multiplied by the contract size. The option buyer's maximum loss is the premium, meaning the price paid for the option, plus costs. A fully paid event-contract buyer likewise risks the purchase cost.
Event contracts vs futures
A conventional futures position gains or loses as the underlying contract price changes. A $1 binary event contract caps the settlement payment at $1 even when the underlying price moves far past its threshold.
Futures use margin, which is money deposited to support the position. Gains and losses are credited or debited as prices change, and an adverse move can trigger a margin call for additional funds. A fully paid binary purchase has its maximum contract loss funded at entry.
Binary options vs event contracts
A Yes/No event contract with a fixed-or-zero payment has the payoff structure of a binary option as the CFTC defines it. Both pay according to whether a condition is met, without giving the holder the right to buy or sell the underlying asset.
A 2013 CFTC and SEC investor alert on binary options noted that some binary options were listed on registered US exchanges, while much of the market operated through internet platforms. Its example promised a predetermined return on the amount deposited: 50% on a $50 purchase if a stock was above a set price at expiration. In an exchange-traded event contract, the return comes from the price agreed in trading relative to the fixed settlement payment.
Are event contracts derivatives?
Event contracts are derivatives because their value depends on an underlying event or measurement. The CFTC describes them as typically structured as swaps, agreements that, in this setting, make a payment contingent on an event's outcome.
Prices and Probabilities
How contract prices translate into implied probabilities and trading returns.
Order Books
How available orders determine the price and quantity you can trade.
Market Resolution
How an event's result becomes a settlement payment.
Reading a Market
How to interpret the individual contracts within a prediction-market event.
Trading Prediction Markets
How prediction markets work on Kalshi and Polymarket, from buying a contract to calculating profit or loss when you sell or collect a payout.
Prediction Market Platforms
Prediction market platforms handle your money and settle contracts in different ways, affecting what you own and how you get paid.