Market Resolution
Polymarket and Kalshi settlement rules explain why payment can wait after an event ends and why similar contracts can resolve differently.
Holding a prediction market contract through settlement means waiting for an official answer to the question in its rules. A contract on a company's quarterly revenue, for example, might use the first earnings release. If the company later corrects that figure, the correction may change your understanding of the business while leaving the contract's result unchanged.
The process for confirming a result also affects when holders receive payment. A market may be waiting for its required source to publish, or a disagreement may need to be resolved before settlement can proceed. Knowing what still needs to happen helps you understand a pending payment and identify the evidence relevant to a disputed outcome.
How are prediction markets resolved?
Prediction markets are resolved by applying a contract's rules to evidence of what happened. Once the result is confirmed, settlement distributes the money attached to the contract. In a standard Yes/No market, the winning side receives $1 per contract and the losing side receives zero. Some contracts specify other settlement values for exceptional circumstances.
The rules identify what must happen, when it must happen, and which evidence counts. A sports league might publish the final score, which the exchange then uses to decide a contract's outcome.
Under a hypothetical football contract on a home win, the league's official final score of 24 to 17 gives a Yes result. Settlement then pays $1 per Yes contract and zero per No contract.
Each venue has its own process for confirming the result:
| Venue | Who determines the result? |
|---|---|
| Kalshi | Kalshi decides the outcome by applying the contract's terms to information from its designated source. |
| Polymarket international | Most markets use UMA, a system that accepts proposed results and handles challenges. Up-or-down crypto markets use a separate process based on Chainlink price data. |
| Polymarket US | The exchange decides the result from the listed sources and treats resolutions as final under its rulebook. Polymarket Clearing processes settlement. |
A contract can trade near $1 while its official result is still pending. Your profit on the contract depends on the eventual settlement amount, what you paid, and any charges.
Why is a prediction market closed but not settled?
A prediction market can be closed but not settled because trading has ended while the evidence, outcome decision, or payment is still pending.
When does a prediction market close, resolve, and settle?
After trading closes, the venue can still be waiting for the named source to publish the result before resolving the contract under its rules. Settlement follows the confirmed decision, crediting cash or making outcome tokens redeemable.
Kalshi's Fed-decision contract, for example, stops trading before the scheduled Federal Reserve announcement and expires after the decision is released. Holders can be unable to trade while the information needed to decide their contract is still missing.
Kalshi's Fed-decision contract closes before the Federal Reserve publishes the decision needed to resolve it. The release is followed by expiration and Kalshi's outcome decision before holders receive payment at settlement.
On Polymarket international, an end date marks eligibility for resolution. For markets using UMA, a proposed answer must pass through a challenge period or a dispute before holders can redeem their tokens. The event's end date and the proposal's deadline refer to different stages.
When do event contracts settle on Robinhood?
A contract held through Robinhood settles after the partner exchange confirms the result under that contract's rules. Robinhood then reflects the payment in your account. The exchange offering the contract sets its settlement terms, so the underlying venue matters even though you placed the trade through a broker.
Robinhood's settlement guidance gives current processing estimates and separates account credit from withdrawal availability. Money received from a settled contract can remain unavailable to withdraw while the broker finishes processing it.
A broker can credit a contract's settlement payment to your account while the proceeds are still being processed for withdrawal.
How does Kalshi settle markets?
Kalshi's markets team decides the outcome from the source named in the contract. Once the contract has expired and the required evidence is available, the team applies the criteria and assigns a result. Settlement then credits holders with the amount due.
Kalshi documents these stages in its API, the data service used by other software. The names distinguish a known result from a completed payment:
| API status | What has happened? |
|---|---|
| Closed | Trading has stopped, and Kalshi has yet to determine the outcome. |
| Determined | Kalshi has set the result, and a settlement timer is running. |
| Disputed or amended | The result has been challenged; an amended decision restarts the settlement timer. |
| Finalized | Settlement is complete and positions have received their settlement amounts. |
What does “pending payout” mean on Kalshi?
A “pending payout” message means the contract's payment has not reached your cash balance. The wait can include an outcome decision as well as the settlement process after that decision.
The labels “outcome pending” and “outcome to be determined” say that the result itself is still undecided. According to the Kalshi settlement guidance, the team may be waiting for final source data or a later determination time written into the rules. A broadcast score can precede the league's final statistics, and a preliminary economic release can precede the estimate the contract uses.
Compare the source's published result with the contract's determination date to see whether the evidence is available and the decision is due. If Kalshi has already posted a result, the remaining wait concerns settlement or a formal outcome review, announced by a public notice.
How long does Kalshi take to settle?
Kalshi's Fed-decision and football game-winner contracts require settlement by the day after expiration, unless a formal outcome review is underway. A later expiration moves that deadline, and a combo combining several outcomes in one contract needs a separate review.
Expiration can differ from the time trading stops or the event appears finished. The football terms move expiration earlier once a winner is reported or the game ends in a tie. For a combo, Kalshi checks the combined conditions after the component results are available, which can delay payment beyond the individual markets' settlements. The same guidance gives current processing estimates.
In this hypothetical schedule, a three-game Kalshi combo waits for Monday night's result after the two Sunday results arrive. Kalshi then checks the combined conditions, and payment follows on Tuesday.
When the required evidence has appeared and the determination time has passed, a Request to Settle asks Kalshi's markets team to review whether the market is ready for settlement. For an overdue single-outcome market, support may escalate the concern to the markets team if you provide the market title and source. A result you believe is incorrect calls for a report identifying the error.
What are prediction market resolution criteria?
Resolution criteria specify the condition being tested, the relevant period, the accepted evidence, and what happens in exceptional cases. On Polymarket, the rules define the result, while the title summarizes the question. On Kalshi, the rules summary leaves out parts of the full contract, so an uncertain point needs to be checked against the full terms.
Suppose a hypothetical contract asks whether Netflix reports quarterly revenue above $12 billion. Its resolution depends on details such as these:
| Part of the contract | What needs to be specified? |
|---|---|
| Revenue measure | Total company revenue, or revenue from a particular business or region? |
| Reporting period | Which fiscal quarter, with what beginning and end dates? |
| Threshold | More than $12 billion, or $12 billion and above? |
| Record | The company's first earnings release, a regulatory filing, or a later revision? |
| Deadline | Must the qualifying report be published by a stated date and time? |
| Missing report | What happens if that record is late, withdrawn, or unavailable? |
If the first release reports revenue below the threshold and a later restatement puts it above, the contract clause naming the accepted version decides the result. A contract can also require the qualifying report by a fixed date. Publication after that date could make it resolve No even though revenue exceeds $12 billion.
A hypothetical contract requiring quarterly revenue above $12 billion resolves No if its rules use the $11.9 billion first release. Accepting the $12.1 billion restatement instead gives a Yes result for the same quarter.
A deadline can instead apply to the event itself. An acquisition completed in June and announced in July could satisfy a contract on completion by June 30 if later evidence is allowed. It would fail a contract requiring an announcement by June 30.
For two hypothetical contracts with a June 30 deadline, completing an acquisition that day gives Yes if later evidence is allowed. Announcing it on July 1 gives No where the contract requires the announcement by the deadline.
On Polymarket, proposers and voters are expected to consider any “Additional context” update alongside the original rules. A clarification can settle which reading of a condition applies, within the limits on changing the question. The title may remain unchanged even though the update affects which outcomes qualify.
Which resolution sources count?
A resolution source is the record or publisher the contract accepts as evidence. Polymarket US names the Bureau of Labor Statistics for government data and CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index as examples in its source documentation. Kalshi's football terms put the governing league ahead of sources such as ESPN and the Associated Press when reports disagree.
The exact record matters as much as the organization's name. A company's earnings release and its later filing can both be official documents, with different figures or publication times. A named Bitcoin benchmark can also differ from the last trade on an exchange.
A correction only counts if the contract allows it. Kalshi's football terms exclude corrections made after expiration. When a source stops publishing, the contract's backup-source clause or the venue's contract modification powers govern how to obtain an answer.
In this hypothetical football example, the league corrects its result after the contract has settled. Kalshi still uses the result at expiration because its terms exclude later revisions.
How does Polymarket resolve markets?
On Polymarket international, most markets use the UMA optimistic oracle, which brings an accepted answer about an outside event into the blockchain program holding the market's funds. A proposer submits an outcome and posts money as a bond, risking it if the answer is successfully challenged. Under UMA's process, an unchallenged answer is accepted when its challenge period ends.
The process is called “optimistic” because a vote is needed only when someone disputes the answer. If nobody challenges, the proposer recovers the bond and receives a reward.
A Polymarket international market using UMA can resolve without a vote once an unchallenged proposal's deadline passes, making winning tokens redeemable for $1 each. If someone challenges the proposal, UMA voters decide the bonds and Polymarket requests a replacement answer.
Polymarket can restrict proposals to approved addresses through its oracle's settings. Where that restriction applies, traders outside the approved group can still challenge a proposed answer during its dispute window.
What does “outcome proposed” mean on Polymarket?
“Outcome proposed” means someone has submitted an answer for the oracle to accept or reject. A proposed Yes remains open to challenge until its deadline. The proposal's evidence and the contract's criteria determine whether there is a basis for a Polymarket dispute.
Why hasn't a Polymarket market resolved yet?
A market using UMA on Polymarket international can still be waiting for an initial proposal, for the challenge period to end, or for a dispute decision. The challenge period starts when the proposal is submitted, with current durations set out in the Polymarket resolution timeline.
After resolution, holders redeem winning tokens for the collateral backing them. In a standard binary result, each winning token returns $1 and each losing token returns zero. Winning tokens remain redeemable at any time after resolution, with no deadline.
How does a Polymarket dispute work?
For UMA-resolved markets on Polymarket international, anyone can challenge a proposed result during its challenge period by posting a matching bond. The proposal's deadline and required bond are the first things to check, since both are configurable. The market's rules link to the UMA oracle interface, where the challenge is submitted as a transaction. Evidence is discussed in UMA's Discord.
An unsuccessful challenger loses the bond, so the evidence needs to address the disputed condition. Suppose a musician shares an award and traders disagree about whether that counts as winning under the contract. Another report confirming the shared award would leave the disagreement about the meaning of “wins” unresolved.
Polymarket's documented resolution sequence allows a replacement proposal before the market has to wait for a vote:
- If nobody challenges the first proposal, the market can resolve when its challenge period ends.
- If the first proposal is challenged, the system requests a new proposed answer to the same question. An unchallenged replacement can resolve the market.
- If the replacement is also challenged, the market waits for UMA's Data Verification Mechanism, or DVM, to decide through voting.
The original proposer and challenger still need a decision about their bonds, even if the replacement proposal has already resolved the market. For a holder of Yes or No tokens, the replacement can therefore end the wait without first settling who was right in the original bond dispute.
After the first challenge in Polymarket's UMA process, an unchallenged replacement proposal can resolve the market before voters decide the original bonds. A challenge to the replacement makes the market wait for UMA's vote on the result.
Voters commit UMA tokens through staking, and their voting weight comes from those tokens. They submit votes privately and reveal them later. Under the DVM rules, missing a vote or voting against the majority can cost them part of their stake. Holding Yes or No tokens in the disputed market gives no voting right.
The successful proposer or challenger recovers their bond plus half of the losing side's bond. A “Too Early” decision rewards the challenger and leaves the market awaiting a later answer. An “Unknown/50-50” result instead sets an equal settlement value for the two sides where that outcome is supported.
In a hypothetical Polymarket dispute, the proposer and challenger each post a $500 bond. The successful side receives $750, including a $250 gain, while the unsuccessful side loses all $500.
Polymarket describes UMA-finalized outcomes as immutable. Its published resolution code nevertheless separates the oracle's answer from recording the market's settlement. Before that record is made, an administrator can pause resolution or flag the market for a manual decision after a safety delay. The code blocks flagging an already-resolved market, so these controls do not provide a way to reverse a completed settlement.
How do you dispute a Kalshi market outcome?
Report a suspected error through Kalshi's support chat, identifying the market, the disputed result, and the supporting source. Only Kalshi can start a formal outcome review, and it must do so before settlement.
When Kalshi opens the Market Outcome Review Process under Rule 7.1 of its rulebook, version 1.29, it posts a notice. The Kalshi Outcome Review Committee then reviews the evidence and must decide within 24 hours. Its decision is final under that rule.
For a Polymarket international market using UMA, a trader opens a dispute by posting a matching bond during the challenge period. On Kalshi, a report to support reaches formal review only if the exchange opens one before settlement, and its committee must then decide within 24 hours.
A report needs enough detail to compare the assigned result with the rules:
- The market and the particular outcome you are contesting.
- The contract clause that decides the result.
- The named source's evidence, including its publication time if a deadline applies.
- The difference between that evidence and the result Kalshi assigned.
For a wrongly copied revenue figure, the company's published earnings table lets the reviewer compare the reported number with the one used to settle. If a later revision was used instead of the first release, both versions and the clause governing revisions are relevant. If the wording allows competing readings, explain how each reading changes the result for holders.
Contradictory terms can also be reported before an outcome is due through Kalshi's market bug bounty program, which accepts issues such as conflicting summaries and missing tiebreakers. Raising a wording problem while trading remains open gives holders a chance to respond to any clarification.
Can Polymarket or Kalshi change the rules?
Polymarket can clarify ambiguous wording after trading begins, within its stated limit that a clarification must preserve the question's fundamental intent. Kalshi can change a source or expiration date under specified circumstances, including unavailable data and rescheduled events.
On Polymarket international, an “Additional context” update is published onchain for proposers and UMA voters to consider. Clarification requests go to Polymarket's Discord. Polymarket US similarly says its clarifications preserve the market question, and it may cancel resting orders when an update appears.
A clarification accepting joint winners in an award market gives Yes holders another qualifying outcome. A trader who had counted only an outright win would need to include the chance of a shared award when valuing the contract. This can change its value before any further news about the award itself.
For a trader counting only outright wins, a shared award would resolve No in this hypothetical market. A clarification accepting joint winners makes it Yes, while an outright win remains Yes and no award remains No.
Under Rule 7.2 of its rulebook, version 1.29, Kalshi can replace an unavailable or unreliable source with an objective, verifiable one and change the related terms. It can also move expiration when cancellation, rescheduling, or delayed data prevents an accurate result. Kalshi must announce these changes on its website. The rule does not say these changes must happen before trading closes.
A replacement source might report a different figure, while a later expiration can leave holders waiting longer for payment. Adding a new qualifying outcome changes which events produce a Yes result. A report objecting to a change should show the original clause, the revised one, and whether the update appeared before or after the event.
Why did Polymarket or Kalshi resolve a market the wrong way?
A result can conflict with what you saw because the contract specified a narrower event, a different record, or a disputed interpretation. There can also be an error in the source or in applying the rules. Comparing the result with the exact clause separates those problems.
In February 2026, Kalshi used an alternative settlement for a contract on Cardi B's appearance in Bad Bunny's Super Bowl halftime show. Its terms distinguished performing from background dancing. Front Office Sports reported that Kalshi treated her participation as ambiguous and settled at a last-traded price it considered fair.
Polymarket's contract asked whether she “performs live and in person.” Its clarification accepted participation without singing, and traders challenged a proposed Yes result, including objections that the clarification appeared after the show. The two venues were applying different wording to the same appearance.
Kalshi treated Cardi B's Super Bowl halftime appearance as ambiguous under rules distinguishing performance from background dancing and settled at a last-traded price. Polymarket's clarification accepted participation without singing, and traders challenged a proposed Yes, as Front Office Sports reported.
An error in the evidence calls for a different check. A league might correct a result after the contract's cutoff for revisions, leaving the sporting record different from the record accepted for settlement. If the venue instead used the wrong version or copied the wrong value, the report needs to identify that mistake.
A suspected wrong outcome can be raised through the Polymarket challenge process while its deadline is open, or through Kalshi's reporting and review routes.
What happens if a prediction market event is cancelled?
Cancellation can lead to No, a delayed decision, or an alternative settlement value. The contract's cancellation and postponement provisions decide which applies. For contracts held through a broker, the partner exchange chooses the treatment under those terms, as Robinhood explains in its settlement guidance.
Cancelling an awards ceremony could settle a contract asking whether the ceremony takes place by a deadline. A separate contract asking who wins an award could remain answerable if the organizer announces winners without holding the ceremony. The condition in the rules decides whether cancellation prevents an answer.
A hypothetical contract on whether an awards ceremony takes place by its deadline could resolve No after cancellation. A separate contract on the top award can still resolve if the organizer announces winners without a ceremony.
What does “voided” mean for a contract?
A “voided” contract has been cancelled without declaring a winning outcome. The exchange's terms and settlement notice specify what holders receive. In Robinhood's nonparticipation guidance, the exchange decides whether to void a contract or settle it at a fallback value.
Kalshi calls a result between $0 and $1 “settled scalar”. Under Rule 6.3(c) of its rulebook, version 1.29, Kalshi may settle at the last traded price if it cannot determine at expiration whether the contract's condition was met or how to divide the money between the two sides. If that price is unavailable or Kalshi judges it unfair, the Outcome Review Committee decides the final amounts.
What happens on Kalshi if a game is postponed or suspended?
The contract's sport-specific terms decide whether it waits for play to resume or settles at an alternative value. Under Kalshi's football game-winner terms, a postponed game that starts within 48 hours of its original date uses the rescheduled result. Otherwise, Kalshi sets the last fair market price for settlement.
For a football game suspended before 55 minutes of play and not scheduled to resume within the specified window, those terms generally use the last fair price. A completed period or a condition already decided can settle on its result. If the organizer declares the game final, or it stops after 55 minutes with no resumption scheduled, the terms use what happened on the field.
Kalshi settles a postponed football game on its result if it starts within 48 hours of the original start, and at the last fair price otherwise. For a suspended game with no resumption scheduled, the result counts after 55 minutes of play or when the game is declared final, a period is complete, or a condition is already decided; otherwise, the last fair price applies.
Football ties have their own settlement clauses, including an equal split when no Tie outcome is listed.
What happens on Kalshi if a player doesn't play?
In a standard NFL player market, the contract settles at the fair price from before kickoff if an active player never takes a snap. Once the player takes a snap, the contract settles on the statistics they actually record, even if they later leave injured. Kalshi's NFL player-market guidance applies this rule to ordinary Yes/No targets, excluding ladder and escalator contracts.
A ladder contract pays a fixed amount for each catch, yard, or fantasy point, while an escalator pays progressively more at each step in the player's statistics.
Protected NFL markets are separate versions of Yes/No contracts that allow fair-price settlement when a player leaves early. If a player participates only in the first half, falls short of the target, and at least one play occurs after halftime, those contracts settle at the fair price from before kickoff.
Both standard and protected Kalshi NFL player markets use the fair price from before kickoff when an active player never takes a snap. If the player plays only the first half and misses the target, with play continuing after halftime, the standard market uses recorded statistics while the protected market uses that fair price.
A hypothetical Yes settlement of 38¢ returns $38 for 100 Yes contracts. A trader who paid $25 for those contracts gains $13, while one who paid $60 loses $22 before charges.
Two hypothetical holders of 100 Yes contracts each receive $38 from a 38¢ fair-price settlement. Their purchase costs turn that same payment into a $13 gain on a $25 purchase or a $22 loss on a $60 purchase, before charges.
What happens to a Kalshi combo if a player doesn't play?
A combo is a single contract whose payment combines the settlement values of several selected outcomes. If one player does not participate, that player's component can settle at a fair-price value. In Kalshi's nonparticipation example, one component settles at 70¢ because a player did not participate and two others settle at $1. Multiplying those values gives a payment of 70¢ per combo contract.
In Kalshi's example, multiplying a 70¢ fair-price settlement for a player who did not participate by two $1 settlements gives a combo payment of 70¢ per contract.
That calculation follows the component markets' rules. Protected NFL combos have a separate fair-price provision for qualifying early exits. The distinction also matters when comparing combo settlement with sportsbook parlays, whose cancellation treatment can differ.
What happens if Polymarket resolves to 50-50?
For a standard binary market using UMA on Polymarket international, an “Unknown/50-50” result makes each Yes token and each No token redeemable for 50¢. Polymarket documents it for cases where neither ordinary outcome applies. Whether a cancellation or other exception qualifies for an equal split comes from the contract's rules and resolution decision.
In a standard binary market using UMA on Polymarket international, a final Unknown/50-50 result gives each Yes token and each No token the same 50¢ redemption value.
Consider two hypothetical traders holding 100 tokens on the same side:
| Purchase price per token | Total purchase cost | Amount received at 50¢ settlement | Profit or loss before charges |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32¢ | $32 | $50 | $18 gain |
| 76¢ | $76 | $50 | $26 loss |
Both receive $50 for the same number of tokens. Refunding their purchases would instead return $32 to one and $76 to the other.
A market trading at 50¢ before resolution is still pricing an unsettled outcome. A final 50-50 result fixes what each token redeems for.
Polymarket's negative-risk markets link outcomes around exactly one winner. Each component needs a Yes or No result because their published resolution code rejects an equal split.
How does resolution risk affect prediction market prices?
A contract can trade below $1 after the apparent outcome is known because holders still face uncertainty about how the rules will be applied. That uncertainty about interpretation, evidence, or settlement is resolution risk. It changes the expected payment even when traders agree on what happened.
Suppose a hypothetical contract asks whether a musician wins an award. The award has been shared with another artist, and traders disagree about whether “wins” includes joint winners. Assume Yes will receive $1 if the shared award qualifies and zero if it does not.
An 80% chance that the shared award qualifies gives an expected Yes payment of 80¢, combining an 80% chance of $1 with a 20% chance of zero. A trader using that estimate would value the claim below $1 even after the ceremony. Expressly accepting or excluding shared awards in the rules would remove this particular uncertainty.
If the contract could instead settle at 50¢ when the shared award fails to qualify for Yes, the expected payment would rise to 90¢. That combines an 80% chance of $1 with a 20% chance of 50¢.
With an 80% chance of a shared award qualifying for a $1 Yes payment and a 20% chance of zero, the hypothetical contract's expected payment is 80¢. Replacing zero with a 50¢ settlement adds 10¢ from that 20% chance, raising the expected payment to 90¢.
These are hypothetical valuations before trading costs and the cost of waiting for payment. An executable price also depends on the orders available in the market. Prices and Probabilities explains those other reasons a price can differ from a probability estimate.
How do settlement rules affect prediction market arbitrage?
Two contracts with similar titles can leave a possible result in which both positions lose. Suppose one contract asks whether an acquisition is completed by June 30, allowing later confirmation. Another asks whether completion is officially announced by June 30.
Imagine buying Yes on the announcement contract for 44¢ and No on the completion contract for 48¢. The pair costs 92¢. If the questions were equivalent, one side would pay $1, appearing to leave an 8¢ profit before charges. But if the acquisition closes on June 30 and the announcement arrives on July 1, both positions lose and the pair returns zero.
Checking the possible outcomes of a paired trade across all four combinations of Yes and No shows where both positions would pay zero.
In the hypothetical arbitrage scanner example, Yes on announcement at 44¢ and No on completion at 48¢ cost 92¢ and gain 8¢ before charges if both contracts resolve alike. With June 30 as both contracts' deadline, completing the acquisition that day and announcing it on July 1 makes both positions lose and the pair pay zero.
Comparing the clauses reveals whether that combination is possible. The accepted evidence, observation period, deadline, and exceptional-case treatment all need to match before two positions can be treated as covering opposite outcomes of the same question.